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Lao - Country Economic Memorandum - Realizing the development potential of Lao PDR (Vol. 2) : Main report (Inglês)

To sustain or exceed the 1990s annual average growth rate of 6.3 percent, Lao will need to promote agricultural and manufactured exports, and increase the contribution of natural resources to development. This will require another round of reforms, and supportive public spending. These reforms should seek to create a more enabling environment for the private sector, and for exports, to raise revenue and maintain macroeconomic stability, as well as to improve the transparency, accountability and efficiency of public expenditure management, and public service delivery. To develop natural resources and mineral reserves, Lao will need to attract substantial international and domestic capital to meet the heavy front-end capital costs required to exploit mineral deposits. To bring in that investment, however, requires improvement in governance of the mining sector, particularly in regard to partnerships with the private sector. Looking specifically at growth and poverty reduction, three scenarios for growth - base, base plus and high - show aggregate GDP growth up to 2015, rising roughly by an annual average of 4-5 percent, 5-6 percent, and 6-8 percent respectively. These indicate that this long-term growth will be driven largely by manufacturing (industry) and services, with growth from agriculture though important in the initial years, its contribution declining in the long-term. These growth scenarios depend very much on the pace and depth of reforms the country implements. Additionally, rising government revenues from natural resources alone will not suffice to meet social needs. On current trends, for example, per capita recurrent expenditures in health hardly increase until 2015. The country will need to take additional revenue measures and reallocate expenditures to increase recurrent expenditures on social sectors. To be effective, such revenue and expenditure measures must also be accompanied by efficient improvements in the service delivery mechanisms, i.e., increasing the participation of the poor.

Detalhes

  • Data do documento

    2004/12/23

  • TIpo de documento

    Memorando Econômico do País

  • No. do relatório

    30188

  • Nº do volume

    2

  • Total Volume(s)

    2

  • País

    República Democrática Popular do Laos,

  • Região

    Leste Asiático e Pacífico,

  • Data de divulgação

    2010/07/01

  • Nome do documento

    Main report

  • Palavras-chave

    social outcome;natural resource development;Country Policy and Institutional Assessment;negative impact on growth;social indicator;Natural Resources;access to financial service;life expectancy at birth;public expenditure on education;access to safe water;Public Spending;per capita income;live birth;growth and development;total public expenditure;complete primary school;Public Financial Management;Public Sector Governance;development vision;central planning system;primary completion rate;health care utilization;public sector reform;expenditures on health;poor area development;impact on poverty;area of governance;per capita consumption;return to education;acute respiratory infection;national poverty line;quality of governance;central government revenue;difference in poverty;safe water access;maternal mortality rate;quality and efficiency;gnp per capita;incidence of poverty;health care service;accessing health care;public health care;net enrollment rate;promoting gender equality;universal primary education;state-owned banks;living in poverty;state owned bank;service delivery chain;foreign oil company;governance on income;reducing child mortality;natural resource curse;infant mortality rate;country economic memorandum;revenues from oil;poverty monitoring system;gdp growth rate;expenditure tracking survey;reduction in poverty;Demand For Education;human resource development;Learning and Innovation Credit;macroeconomic model;household income;child malnutrition;poverty headcount;Agriculture;oil revenue;Financial Stability;capital accumulation;Public Services;reduced poverty;sectoral analysis;agricultural household;health status;Health Service;base case;curative care;good governance;marginal effect;high mortality;environmental sustainability;institutional environment;start school;empirical research;

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