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Poverty Dynamics and Mobility in Ethiopia : Evidence from the First Three Rounds of the Socioeconomic Survey (Inglês)

The purposes of this chapter are twofold: to shed some light on the dynamics of welfare in Ethiopia between 2012 and 2016, and to profile the chronic, transitory and never poor parts of the population. Fuje (2018) uses the same three rounds of ESS data to show that consumption growth was negative across the non-urban spectrum in Ethiopia, leading to a small increase in the poverty rate. The real median of consumption dropped by over 7 percent in rural areas between 2014 and 2016, while the fall in the real mean was even greater. The impact of the drought in 2015 was considerable, with the strongest negative effects being concentrated on poor households. This report exploits the longitudinal nature of the ESS to enhance the understanding of the dynamics of welfare, and for a better understanding of who entered poverty, who exited poverty, who was stuck in poverty, and the reasons why. This chapter is divided into several sections. In the first, the ESS longitudinal dataset is described briefly, along with some of the main assumptions that were used in the analysis. The next section describes changes in the welfare of Ethiopian households using ESS 2012, 2014 and 2016 data. The report then focuses on the kind of poverty that non-urban households in Ethiopia faced over the period and outlines the characteristics and differences of households in chronic poverty and transitory poverty. The final section analyzes the dynamics of welfare in Ethiopia, with particular attention being paid to the determinants of poverty exit and entry.

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