Quantitative studies of civil war have focused either on war's onset, or its termination, producing important insights into these end points of the process. The authors complement these studies by studying how much war we are likely to observe in any given period. To answer this question, they combine recent advances in the theory of civil war initiation, and duration, and, develop the concept of war incidence, denoting th probability of observing...
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2001/01/31
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas
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WPS2533
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1
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1
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2010/07/01
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How much war will we see? Estimating the incidence of civil war in 161 countries
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Civil War
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