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Slow road to recovery (Inglês)

The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But even where employment has recovered meaningfully since 2010, the gains were not broad-based and mostly concentrated in services Near-term economic growth will be too weak to support substantial gains in employment. Weak domestic demand depressed imports in all countries but Serbia, where their rise was led by raw materials and parts used in export-oriented industries. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained sluggish in SEE6, rising only by 0.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), but its share of financing of the current account increased. Remittances continued to be resilient overall, but the Greek crisis began to take its toll, especially on Albania. Foreign banks' deleveraging from SEE6, rising Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and weak credit growth underpinned the need for vigorous reforms to reduce vulnerabilities in the financial sector. European banks continued to deleverage and reduced their exposure to the SEE6 region. With the aim of improving their resilience and supervisory capacity, the SEE6 countries made some progress in implementing banking reforms over the past year.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Vincelette, Gallina Andronova Bogetic, Zeljko Adugna, Abebe

  • Data do documento

    2013/12/01

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada)

  • No. do relatório

    83136

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    South Eastern Europe and Balkans,

  • Região

    Europa e Ásia Central,

  • Data de divulgação

    2013/12/09

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    Slow road to recovery

  • Palavras-chave

    export base;food price inflation;public sector wage bill;alternative dispute resolution mechanism;unit labor costs;Capital Adequacy Ratio;energy price;current account deficit;ministries of finance;transfer of technology;asset management company;gross domestic product;production and export;higher interest rate;current account balance;source of financing;labor market condition;global interest rates;foreign direct investment;credit default swap;global capital flow;domestic policy framework;total external debt;asset management companies;legal and accounting;source of funding;bank of greece;foreign technical assistance;committee of creditor;retail electricity price;Corporate Debt Restructuring;international good practice;lack of awareness;return on asset;decline in unemployment;high unemployment rate;corporate insolvency law;productivity growth;national statistical;export growth;domestic demand;national authority;credit growth;industrial production;portfolio investment;public debt;weather condition;foreign bank;agricultural output;external demand;Financial Sector;output growth;worker remittance;economic recovery;output gap;asset quality;liquidity ratio;asset share;public expenditure;weighted average;export capacity;bank profitability;fiscal deficit;fiscal balance;investment climate;banking system;borrowing cost;improving productivity;monetary policy;gross wage;regulatory impediment;external assistance;real property;diagnostic study;domestic consumption;institutional obstacles;distressed company;taxation issues;local stakeholder;regulatory incentive;household debt;import demand;investor risk;mediation services;notary services;commercial court;insolvency professional;sovereign borrowing;political change;fiscal discipline;export drive;contingency planning;Crisis Preparedness;accounting standard;food export;interagency coordination;systemic crisis;hydropower plant;electricity export;financial system;monetary aggregate;broad money;legal tender;risk aversion;capital inflow;Capital Inflows;external inflows;arrears accumulation;foreign company;enforcement procedure;accounting standards;regulatory treatment;overdue loan;distressed asset;corporate client;goods export;multiple creditor;public debate;financial flow;credit underwriting;put pressure;real credit;financial restructuring;bank portfolio;successful financial;remedial action;tourist season;media relation;roumeen islam;fiscal revenue;bond financing;asset price;fiscal limit;middle-income economy;external deficit;global development;credit condition;trade balance;trade competitiveness;labor demand;state guarantee;Business Climate;applicable law;financial crisis;benefit coverage;bottom quintile;global economy;real wage;export performance;investment increase;export good;increased investment;external financing;fiscal pressure;database management;real sector;regional economy;manufacturing export;supervisory capacity;banking reform;tax net;simple average;social transfer;debt dynamic;export prospects;raw material;policy priority;Macroeconomic Stability;tax law;loan restructuring;loan sale;long-term growth;subsidiary right;Consumer Bankruptcy;private consumption;inflationary pressure;real gdp;anecdotal evidence;labor productivity;fiscal position;arable land;fiscal consolidation;economic expansion;export other;candidate countries;household income;Exchange Rates;unemployment figure;unemployment decline;average unemployment;job growth;potential debt;sovereign bond;peak rate;spare capacity;international exposure;regulatory pressure;tax hike;high ratio;loan quality;insolvency regime;external position;prudential framework;bank lending;exchange arrangement;

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