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The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies (Inglês)

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns can actually produce net increases in mortality. In contrast, the optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produces a net mortality increase.


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    Ma,Lin, Shapira,Gil, De Walque,Damien B. C. M., Do,Quy-Toan, Friedman,Jed, Levchenko,Andrei A.

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    Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas

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    Regiões Mundiais,

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    The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

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    population under 15 year of age; development research group; infant and child mortality; tax at rate; per capita income; labor supply; Learning and Innovation Credit; elasticity of substitution; aggregate labor supply; impact on child; case fatality rate; contributing family workers; majority of children; aggregate social welfare; loss of life; household consumption expenditure; time series data; negative income shock; purchasing power parity; share of children; lower mortality; aggregate income shock; quality of care; social assistance program; share of work; context of work; spread of infection; health care capacity; increase in mortality; mode of transmission; child death; hospital capacity; adult mortality; age distribution; infection rate; hospital bed; working adult; excess mortality; child labor; age structure; children of ages; steady state; cross-country variation; discount factor; economic distress; adult death; transmission rate; government intervention; young child; mortality risk; Health Service; smaller share; high ratio; health outcome; disease transmission; government transfer; social distance; labor input; health status; economic shock; risk-free rate; health capacity; excess death; mortality ratio; child survival; blinder decomposition; empirical evidence; horizontal axis; population group; virus spread; survival rate; several reasons; optimal policy; mortality increase; present value; macroeconomic impact; high sensitivity; macro framework; survival probability; government budget; older adult; labor decline; income loss; Child Health; care seeking; primary reason; time horizon; active infection; quantitative analysis; individual consumption; aggregate consumption; utility function; empirical estimate; Death rates; global health; birth history; natural logarithm; time trend; standard error; data limitation; national account; equal share; equal weight; increased mortality; low consumption; lower demand; fact sheet; infection prevalence; negative relationship; virus transmission; external transfer; pandemic scenario; old population; household level; tax rate; tax revenue; budget constraint; household income; government's budget; consumption good; world regions; public events; consumption shortfall; border closure; Labor Market; macroeconomic framework; outbreak location; monetary valuation; total deaths; counterfactual simulations; older individual; pandemic response; young population; social planner; weighted average; substantial variation; Infant Mortality; baseline scenario; Research Support; ceteris paribus; fewer child; health systems; consumption loss; excess supply; improved health; smaller number; social cost; development policy; public health; policy option; children's mortality; sars outbreak; open access; low-income settings; macro model; young adult; several factors; reference level; mitigation policy; high share; income shortfall; similar age; new vaccine



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