This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies...
Consistent with rising poverty rates, inequality within countries in the region has widened with rising fuel and food prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The economic divide between the rich and...
Consistent with rising poverty rates, inequality within countries in the region has widened with rising fuel and food prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The economic divide between the rich and...
Food price inflation has increased persistently in recent years in Turkey with a widening divergence from international food price inflation. The study analyzes the main inefficiencies in the Turkish agricultural...
The growth recovery of the global economy is losing steam as it faces a series of new, multiple, and covariate shocks. As economies started lifting coronavirus constraints, pent-up demand and constrained...
The growth recovery of the global economy is losing steam as it faces a series of new, multiple, and covariate shocks. As economies started lifting coronavirus constraints, pent-up demand and constrained...
In 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa emerged from the recession, but its recovery is still timid and fragile. The region is projected to grow at a rate of 3.3 percent, a weaker pace of recovery than that of advanced...
The prices of 27 internationally traded commodities are decomposed into transitory and permanent shocks by applying an ideal band-pass filter to monthly data from 1970–2020. The two types of shocks contributed...
In 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa emerged from the recession, but its recovery is still timid and fragile. The region is projected to grow at a rate of 3.3 percent, a weaker pace of recovery than that of advanced...
In 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa emerged from the recession, but its recovery is still timid and fragile. The region is projected to grow at a rate of 3.3 percent, a weaker pace of recovery than that of advanced...
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major...
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged...
The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent...
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices...
The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented...
This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per...
Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption...
Published semiannually, Global Economic Prospects includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries. Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are...