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Rwanda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (Inglês)

This report focuses on joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for Rwanda. Rwanda’s public debt is sustainable and remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. The DSA covers the central government as well as guarantees and debt held by all state-owned enterprises. This DSA is based on the baseline of the most recent DSA, published in July 2019, which will be updated in the next full DSA. A customized stress test to the most recent DSA is introduced to approximate the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic on Rwanda’s economy. In this scenario, main macro variables such as real GDP growth and the primary balance in percent of GDP are shocked compared to the baseline in the previous DSA. Exports are shocked by a significantly larger magnitude, to reflect lower receipts from tourism and goods exports due to weakening global demand. This produces a one-off breach to the PV of debt-to-exports ratio in 2020. All other external and public debt burden indicators remain under their respective thresholds under the baseline and stress tests, except for one-off breaches in the external debt service indicators in 2023 when the Eurobond issued in 2013 matures. These single one-year breaches are automatically discounted from the analysis according to the LIC-DSF guidance note. The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information. However, updates with respect to the economic impact and policy response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.

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